and the winner is

The 81st Academy Awards are held tonight in Los, Angeles California, and I am thrilled it’s that time of year again. As usual I have dedicated much time and money into preparing for awards season. Last year many awards were in the air, nobody was really sure who or what was going to win. This year, there seems to be more unanimity about who should win. It was an odd year in film. Certainly not a bad year, but the films tended to be hollow, especially in comparison to last year’s psyche shaker’s No Country For Old Men and There Will Be Blood. Here are my predictions…

Best Supporting Actor

This is the only category with a clear cut winner. Heath Ledger doesn’t have an ounce of competition. Josh Brolin was good in Milk. He was believable, and he even got away with a drunk scene which is one of the hardest things to achieve in film or stage, and he nailed it. But, he never really supported Penn in the film. He didn’t add that force that Ledger did. Heath defined exactly what this award is given for, an actor who so fully supports the main actor that you are only engaged when there is conflict, dialogue, or action between the them. Phillip Seymour Hoffman was great in Doubt. But his performance wasn’t able to overcome the terrible pace of the film, and unfortunately his performance was lost in the dreariness of the film’s mood. I would liked to have seen John Malkovich nominated for his role in Changeling, but he still would have looked like a Joker compared to Ledger, who was a pure tour de force.

Prediction: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Preference: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Best Supporting Actress

This category is without fail a mystery year after year. There is never a forerunner, and the winner is always somebody obscure. Last year Tilda Swinton took home Oscar for Michael Clayton, a movie few people saw and even fewer people enjoyed. She hadn’t won nearly any awards for the role including the SAG or Golden Globe (which went to Ruby Dee and Cate Blanchett) and yet she walked away with the gold, while we picked our jaws up from the floor. In The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Taraji P. Henson is delightful and likable. She is a darn good actress, but she’s only on screen for about a total of 15 mins, and that doesn’t fly (unless you’re Judi Dench). Marisa Tomei is a wildfire of talent in The Wrestler, but it’s not the kind of role that the Academy goes for, I mean she’s not even wearing a corset. The true gem of this category is the unmatched talent of Viola Davis in Doubt. Davis took home the Tony award for her performance in the stage version of Doubt, and John Patrick Shanley turned down Ms. Oprah Winfrey herself (who called Shanley wanting to play Davis’ role in Doubt) because he was so enraptured with Davis’ shear force in her 10 minute scene. However, in true Hollywood fashion it’s likely that the Oscar will go to the hot girl and not the talent. Please prove me wrong Academy!

Prediction: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Preference: Viola Davis, Doubt

Best Actor

The contest is heated. Sean Penn remarked during his acceptance speech at the SAG awards that “it was on” between he and Mickey Rourke, who took home the Golden Globe. Penn and Rourke both turn out phenomenal performances. Penn is remarkable at everything he does, and his portrayal of Harvey Milk in Milk is so colorfully poignant. He is supported by an unreal cast, and just exudes emotion and compassion without emoting. He is on target every minute of the movie and gracefully glides between scenes. Rourke is unlike anything in film this year. He is raw, and boldly pathetic and sculpts the most endearingly lovable character this year. Rourke breaths life into a generation of old insignificant irrelevant actors, and blows through the walls on conventionality. He is, to put it mildly, super human . Frank Langella should thank his lucky stars he got nominated for his remarkably unconvincing take as Nixon. Lee Pace of The Fall should have been nominated in his place, or possibly Leo DiCaprio for Revolutionary Road.

Prediction: Sean Penn, Milk
Preference: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actress

Last year I was beyond thrilled when Marion Cotillard the French underdog took home the Oscar for her devastating portrayal of Edith Piaf in the biopic La Vie En Rose. This year I would like to see Oscar do something similar. This is Winslet’s year. Kate Winslet in The Reader gives the best performance of the year. She is wickedly believable in this film and dangit she deserves to finally win after years of nominations. A scene in the film where Winslet is sitting in a church listening to children sing and becomes overwhelmed by the in flow of emotions and beauty, and consequently the evil inside her is unlike anything I’ve seen, and in fact echoes a similar scene in La Vie En Rose. Streep was boring and predictable in Doubt, which I know is heretical to say, but Streep needs to stop doing so may movies and really delve in character like she used to. No more of this Mama Mia, Doubt, movie every six month nonsense. She’s caught the Will Farrell syndrome, when you make movies as often as possible, people stop being interested and you become commonplace. Angelina Jolie was fantastic in Changeling, and had it been a different year she would have had a real chance.

Prediction: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Preference: Kate Winslet, The Reader

Best Picture

Slumdog Millionaire. Surprised? Doubtful. This film will take home the Oscar along with plenty other awards as it has done for the past months. It’s real. It’s creative. It’s moving. And it creates such a compassion in you, you hardly remember we’re all losing our jobs and security. It speaks to the humanity in us all, and perfects the art of storytelling. It is beautiful to watch, vivid and captivating and also stunningly organic and free. The Reader is the only competition, and it shares the same theme–the triumph of the human spirit. The Reader takes longer, and creates more obstacles for itself than Slumdog but eventually comes close to reaching the same delivery force of the overall message. Milk was equally moving, but wore it’s theme on it’s sleeve so that you knew from the opening shot what you were supposed to walk away from the film feeling and understanding. Slumdog makes you wait, and when you realize it you can barely hold in your tears.

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Preference: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Original Screenplay: Milk
Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Original Song: “Jai Ho” Slumdog Millionaire

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